Philip Morris’s fourth quarter results were driven by strong growth in its smoke-free portfolio, with management emphasizing double-digit volume gains for its IQOS, ZYN, and VIVE products across multiple regions. CEO Jacek Olczak called attention to the accelerated adoption of smoke-free alternatives, stating, “Our leading global position in smoke-free products enables us to deliver a fifth consecutive year of positive volumes.” Growth was broad-based, including notable gains in Europe, rapid expansion in new markets like Taiwan, and resilience in combustibles despite normalized industry declines and specific supply chain disruptions, particularly in Turkey.

Is now the time to buy PM? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Philip Morris’s Q4 Earnings Call

• Matt Smith (Stifel) asked about the reacceleration of smoke-free volume growth beyond 2026, and CEO Jacek Olczak explained that normalization of Japanese tax policy and expanded U.S. product launches could drive renewed growth after temporary headwinds.
• Eric Sarota (Morgan Stanley) inquired about the competitive environment in Japan and specifics of IQOS volume guidance. Olczak described IQOS as holding strong share despite heightened competition, with new markets like Italy and Taiwan showing accelerating momentum.
• Bonnie Herzog (Goldman Sachs) questioned expected volume elasticity in Japan following excise tax increases and whether pricing would be sufficient to offset margin pressure. Olczak responded that price increases will likely impact volumes, but long-term margin expansion is achievable through strategic pricing and innovation.
• Faham Baig (UBS) asked about the absence of recent ZYN promotions in the U.S. Olczak clarified that promotional intensity varies by period and is aligned with the strategy to support brand strength and prepare for new product launches.
• Gerald Pascarelli (Needham and Company) raised concerns about state-level nicotine pouch taxation in the U.S., and Olczak argued such measures could hinder public health objectives by discouraging smokers from switching to less harmful alternatives.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, our analyst team will closely monitor (1) the pace of regulatory developments and product approvals for ZYN Ultra and IQOS ILUMA in the U.S., (2) the effect of Japanese excise tax increases on IQOS category growth and pricing elasticity, and (3) continued adoption rates of smoke-free products in emerging and established markets. Execution in digitalization and cost efficiency will also be crucial to sustaining margin progress.

Philip Morris currently trades at $188.29, up from $182 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

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