Wall Street has set ambitious price targets for the stocks in this article. While this suggests attractive upside potential, it’s important to remain skeptical because analysts face institutional pressures that can sometimes lead to overly optimistic forecasts.
Unlike the investment banks, we created StockStory to provide independent analysis that helps you determine which companies are truly worth following. That said, here is one stock where Wall Street’s excitement appears well-founded and two where analysts may be overlooking some important risks.
Two Stocks to Sell:
Upstart (UPST)
Consensus Price Target: $56.29 (22.1% implied return)
Using over 2,500 data variables and trained on nearly 82 million repayment events, Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) is an AI-powered lending platform that uses machine learning to help banks and credit unions more accurately assess borrower risk for personal loans, auto loans, and home equity lines of credit.
Why Are We Wary of UPST?
- Customer acquisition costs take a while to recoup, making it difficult to justify sales and marketing investments that could increase revenue
- Cash-burning history makes us doubt the long-term viability of its business model
- Short cash runway increases the probability of a capital raise that dilutes existing shareholders
Upstart is trading at $46.10 per share, or 4.2x forward price-to-sales. To fully understand why you should be careful with UPST, check out our full research report (it’s free).
Pool (POOL)
Consensus Price Target: $316.09 (19.3% implied return)
Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Louisiana, Pool (NASDAQ: POOL) is one of the largest wholesale distributors of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products.
Why Do We Avoid POOL?
- Organic sales performance over the past two years indicates the company may need to make strategic adjustments or rely on M&A to catalyze faster growth
- Free cash flow margin is anticipated to expand by 1.3 percentage points over the next year, providing additional flexibility for investments and share buybacks/dividends
- Eroding returns on capital from an already low base indicate that management’s recent investments are destroying value
At $264.97 per share, Pool trades at 22.8x forward P/E. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why POOL doesn’t pass our bar.
One Stock to Watch:
HNI (HNI)
Consensus Price Target: $67 (47.8% implied return)
With roots dating back to 1944 and a significant acquisition of Kimball International in 2023, HNI (NYSE: HNI) manufactures and sells office furniture systems, seating, and storage solutions, as well as residential fireplaces and heating products.
Why Do We Like HNI?
- Operating profits and efficiency rose over the last five years as it benefited from some fixed cost leverage
- Share repurchases over the last two years enabled its annual earnings per share growth of 25.4% to outpace its revenue gains
- Rising returns on capital show management is finding more attractive investment opportunities
HNI’s stock price of $45.32 implies a valuation ratio of 11.6x forward P/E. Is now a good time to buy? See for yourself in our comprehensive research report, it’s free.
High-Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions
Check out the high-quality names we’ve flagged in our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).
Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
