What Happened?
Shares of fintech mortgage provider Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT) fell 3.3% in the afternoon session after its real estate brokerage subsidiary, Redfin, released a report indicating a significant slowdown in the July 2025 U.S. housing market. The report, published August 18, highlighted that homes took an average of 43 days to sell in July, the longest period for that month since 2015, due to high costs and economic uncertainty. The data also revealed a 1.1% month-over-month drop in pending home sales and the highest rate of canceled home-purchase agreements since 2017. This negative data compounded existing investor concerns about the challenging housing market, which were recently flagged by Morgan Stanley. The bank resumed coverage on the stock with an 'Equalweight' rating, citing an elevated valuation and ongoing headwinds in the mortgage sector.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Rocket Companies’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 37 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 6 days ago when the stock gained 6.8% on the news that a favorable U.S. inflation report bolstered expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, a positive development for the mortgage industry. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July was largely in line with market expectations, a development that increased the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its September meeting to 95%. Lower interest rates are particularly beneficial for the housing sector as they typically translate into lower mortgage rates. This makes homeownership more accessible and stimulates demand, directly benefiting mortgage lenders like Rocket. The positive sentiment was widespread across the market, lifting major U.S. stock indexes.
Rocket Companies is up 65.2% since the beginning of the year, but at $17.92 per share, it is still trading 13.9% below its 52-week high of $20.81 from August 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Rocket Companies’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $889.95.
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