What Happened?
Shares of behavioral health company Acadia Healthcare (NASDAQ: ACHC) jumped 2% in the morning session after a survey from research firm Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted strengthening healthcare volumes and provider optimism for future revenue and profit. The firm's fourth-quarter Private Hospital Executive Survey indicated that both inpatient and outpatient volumes were trending positively toward the end of 2025. This data suggested that full-year guidance for healthcare providers appeared achievable. The positive outlook for the sector seemed to boost investor confidence, signaling that broader industry trends were favorable for the company's performance in the upcoming year.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $14.78, up 2.8% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Acadia Healthcare’s shares are very volatile and have had 28 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 19 days ago when the stock dropped 14.1% on the news that the company cut its full-year 2025 financial guidance after a review found it needed to set aside more money for legal costs. The company increased its professional and general liability reserves following an annual third-party review, citing higher expected expenses from patient-related litigation. This decision was driven by a 168% surge in claim frequency and less favorable reinsurance coverage terms. As a result, Acadia lowered its 2025 adjusted EBITDA forecast to a range of $601 million to $611 million, down from its previous guidance of $650 million to $660 million. Adjusted earnings per share guidance was also revised downward. In response to the news, Bank of America downgraded the stock from Neutral to Underperform and cut its price target to $13 from $21.50, pointing to the increased costs and risks.
Acadia Healthcare is down 63.7% since the beginning of the year, and at $14.78 per share, it is trading 67.5% below its 52-week high of $45.41 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Acadia Healthcare’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $305.12.
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