As the second Trump administration enters its second year, the "honeymoon phase" for his Cabinet appears to be over—at least according to prediction markets. On the regulated exchange Kalshi, traders are increasingly betting on a major shakeup in the President's inner circle. Recent weeks have seen a sharp spike in the probability of departures for several high-profile officials, with Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem and Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard topping the list of most likely exits.

Currently, the market for "Who will leave the Trump Administration this year?" shows Noem and Gabbard both trading at near-coin-flip odds. Noem’s probability of departure before the end of 2026 has surged to approximately 50%, while Gabbard follows closely at 47%. These figures represent a dramatic shift from the relatively stable outlook seen just six months ago, signaling that prediction market participants are pricing in a period of intense political instability within the executive branch.

The Market: What’s Being Predicted

The primary venue for these predictions is Kalshi, the first U.S.-regulated prediction market, which has seen record volumes in its "Cabinet Tenure" contracts. These markets are structured around specific binary outcomes: whether a named official will remain in their post through a certain date. The "Who will be the first Cabinet member to leave?" contract is particularly liquid, with Kristi Noem currently the runaway favorite at a 34-40% chance of being the first to depart.

The resolution criteria for these markets are strict. A "departure" is defined as a formal resignation, firing, or impeachment and removal from office. Temporary leaves or deaths are excluded. For traders, the timeline is the critical factor; these contracts are currently focused on the 2026 calendar year. Since her confirmation in January 2025 by a 59-34 vote, Noem's "leave" odds were initially low—around 15%—but the market sentiment soured as domestic enforcement actions intensified. Similarly, Tulsi Gabbard, who was sworn in on February 13, 2025, has seen her odds fluctuate wildly alongside news of intelligence community friction.

Why Traders Are Betting

The sudden bearishness on Noem’s job security is largely attributed to the fallout from "Operation Metro Surge." Following a large-scale ICE deployment in Minneapolis in early January 2026, which resulted in the fatal shootings of protesters, Noem’s vocal defense of federal agents and her classification of victims as "domestic terrorists" triggered a firestorm of bipartisan criticism. While President Trump has publicly backed her, traders are watching for "friendly fire" from Republican senators like Roger Wicker (R-MS), who have expressed concerns over Noem’s proposed "detention warehouses." Such fractures within the GOP base often precede a Cabinet departure, and Kalshi whales have been moving aggressively on "Yes" contracts for her exit.

Tulsi Gabbard’s precarious position is fueled by a different set of pressures. Recent reports of a "highly classified whistleblower complaint" allegedly suppressed by the DNI’s office have led to calls for her removal from both sides of the aisle. Furthermore, headlines in early 2026 suggested Gabbard may have blindsided the White House by revoking 37 high-level security clearances without prior notification. These events have created a perception of a "rogue" DNI, a narrative that prediction market participants are betting will eventually lead to her resignation or dismissal. The volatility in these roles has also begun to weigh on government services firms like Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE: BAH) and Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR), as investors worry about continuity in federal contracts.

Broader Context and Implications

This market activity underscores a broader trend in the maturation of prediction markets. Unlike traditional polling or punditry, which often lag behind the news cycle, Kalshi’s prices react in real-time to every leaked memo and late-night tweet. The fact that Noem and Gabbard are trading at such high exit probabilities suggests that the "wisdom of the crowd" sees an unsustainable level of friction between these officials and the political realities of 2026.

Historically, prediction markets have been remarkably accurate in forecasting Cabinet turnover. During Trump's first term, similar (though then unregulated) markets on platforms like Polymarket often correctly anticipated the departures of figures like Rex Tillerson and John Bolton. The real-world implications of these "departure odds" are significant; high exit probabilities can often become self-fulfilling prophecies, as the perceived "lame duck" status of an official diminishes their ability to lead their department or negotiate with Congress.

What to Watch Next

The immediate future of the Noem and Gabbard markets will likely hinge on several key milestones. For Noem, the upcoming Senate Judiciary Committee oversight hearings scheduled for late February will be a make-or-break moment. If she faces significant pushback from Republican committee members, her departure odds could easily climb into the 60-70% range. Traders are also monitoring the White House press briefings for any softening of the President’s "total confidence" rhetoric.

For Gabbard, the "Gang of Eight" briefing on the alleged whistleblower complaint remains the primary catalyst. If the complaint is forwarded to Congress against her wishes, it could be the "smoking gun" that forces a leadership change at the DNI. Additionally, keep an eye on other high-risk officials like Attorney General Pam Bondi (currently at 48% to leave) and FBI Director Kash Patel (at 54%), whose own controversies regarding the release of redacted files and resource management are creating a "cluster" of high-probability departures.

Bottom Line

The Kalshi markets offer a sobering look at the stability of the current administration. While confirmation hearings are long over, the "job security" phase of the second Trump term is proving to be even more volatile. The high odds for both Kristi Noem and Tulsi Gabbard reflect a market that believes the current level of controversy is untenable for a long-term tenure.

For observers of prediction markets, this is a masterclass in how these platforms aggregate political risk. Whether Noem and Gabbard survive the year remains to be seen, but the markets have already placed their bets: the status quo is unlikely to hold. As we move deeper into 2026, these departure markets will serve as a vital barometer for the internal health and longevity of the administration's most powerful offices.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Prediction market participation may be subject to legal restrictions in your jurisdiction.

PredictStreet focuses on covering the latest developments in prediction markets.
Visit the PredictStreet website at https://www.predictstreet.ai/.