According to the latest data from industry analyst Oil World, the global sunflower oil market is undergoing a significant structural adjustment. Supply from traditional exporting regions—the European Union and the Black Sea area—continues to tighten, while Argentina in South America is seeing strong export growth, gradually reshaping traditional trade flows.

From January to October 2025, Argentina’s sunflower oil exports reached a record high of 1.36 million metric tons, solidifying its growing role as a key global supplier. Despite weather-related delays in planting earlier in the season, market analysts expect Argentina’s supply capacity to expand further in 2026.

In contrast, the situation in major producing regions such as the EU, Russia, and Ukraine remains challenging. Sunflower seed harvest and processing estimates in these areas have been revised downward repeatedly, leading to tight raw material supply. As a result, global sunflower oil production for the 2025/26 marketing year has been revised down to 22 million metric tons, a reduction of 500,000 metric tons from earlier projections. Global annual growth is now expected to moderate to around 1 million metric tons.

With lower production and low inventories in traditional supply regions, global import patterns are being reshaped. The EU, Turkey, and India—which together account for roughly 50% of global imports—are projected to increase combined purchases by 1.0 to 1.1 million metric tons. Meanwhile, countries in the Middle East and North Africa facing sunflower oil shortages are likely to shift more actively toward soy and Palm Oil.

Total global sunflower oil exports for the current marketing year are forecast at 14.8 million metric tons, down 500,000 metric tons year-on-year. Analysts point to raw material shortages at processing plants in the Northern Hemisphere as a key issue, with exports expected to decline by another 300,000 to 400,000 metric tons in the fourth quarter of 2025. Tight supply continues to support prices, keeping sunflower oil trading at a premium to other vegetable oils in the European market.

Despite production challenges, some estimates suggest Russia’s vegetable oil exports may grow by 18% in the 2025/26 period, maintaining its position as the world’s leading sunflower oil exporter. Overall, however, the global sunflower oil market has entered a new phase characterized by shifting supply patterns and firm prices.

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